Nevada Caucus

Bernie Sanders was the clear frontrunner in the Nevada Caucus and stands currently as the frontrunner overall. Here is the delegate count to-date, according to NPR:

Bernie Sanders, 31; Pete Buttigieg, 22; Elizabeth Warren, 8; Amy Klobuchar, 7; Joe Biden, 6.

Next: Feb. 29. South Carolina

***

Just a note about why I count delegates on a total-to-date basis. I have created and continue to work on a detailed timeline for the 2016 election. I do this to be able to make certain points about that election, namely:

~ That Hillary Clinton was the consistent leader in delegates at any given time during the 2016 contest. She was, consistently, 200 to 300 delegates ahead of Sanders at nearly every snapshot you can take of that primary. Had the Democratic Convention used a plurality rather than a majority to cast its nominee, and had all the superdelegates been punched in the nuts, Hillary Clinton still would have clinched the nomination easily.
~ That, due to this, Bernie Sanders’ continued presence in the race after, say, May 2016, sapped resources from the presumed nominee; that his persistent invective regarding the process itself was harmful–in fact, in early May, Sanders called for a contested convention, at a time when he was literally 300 delegates behind.
~ That the notion that the DNC had it in for Bernie Sanders in 2016 is overblown and inaccurate. The most offensive DNC emails were from a time when Hillary Clinton should have been taking her rightful place as the presumptive nominee (the Republicans had their nominee installed by May 26; Sanders did not concede until July 6).

You might get the impression that I am not enamored with Bernie Sanders. I’m more of a Liz Warren gal myself.

However, the way I analyze it, I have what could be an effective voting position. New York votes April 26, and we award 274 pledged delegates. My pledge is that, if a ballot arrives in New York that offers a clear front-runner in delegates, I will vote for that candidate. If there’s no clear front-runner, I’ll vote my conscience.

So. I count delegates. And Sanders has a tidy lead currently.

Let’s see what happens in March.

New Hampshire Primary

Sanders wins the New Hampshire primary. Andrew Yang withdraws from the race.

Popular vote totals (from CNN):

Sanders 72,493 25.9%
Buttigieg 68,337 24.4%
Warren 26,174 9.3%
Biden 23,745 8.4%
Steyer 10,105 3.6%
Gabbard 9,223 3.3%
Yang 7,997 2.8%
Write-Ins 3,810 1.3%
Patrick 1,219 0.4%
Bennet 923 0.3%

24 delegates are available in New Hampshire. Delegate wins are: Sanders, 9; Buttigieg, 9; Klobuchar, 6.

Delegates TTD: Buttigieg, 22; Sanders, 21; Klobuchar, 10; Warren, 8; Biden, 6; Limbo, 1*.

2016 Flashback: February 9 Bernie Sanders wins the New Hampshire Democratic primary. Pledged delegates TTD: Bernie, 36; Hillary, 32.

2008 Flashback: Jan. 8: Hillary Clinton wins the New Hampshire primary, but it’s still a three-way race. Clinton and Obama both net nine delegates; John Edwards gets 4. Delegates TTD: Obama, 24; Clinton, 23; Edwards, 18.

*Still waiting for the Associated Press to declare a winner in Iowa.

All numbers are incomplete and may be updated.

Next: Nevada caucus is Feb. 22. New York primary is April 28.

Iowa Caucus

[Note: This entry has been updated several times since its original draft, due to the fluctuating nature of the Iowa delegate count.]

Well I was going to start a 2020 presidential primary timeline tonight, but I guess that will have to wait. Due to a new app that was supposed to help the Iowa Democratic Party deliver results faster blowing up, paired with the party’s mandate that it deliver a second data set in addition to delegates, there are no results as I write this at 1 a.m. Tuesday. I am reading that the campaigns are yelling at the party, the Biden campaign lawyers have already sent a nasty letter to the IDP, and all of the candidates have made speeches that essentially declared victory in Iowa “and now on to New Hampshire.”

This is not an auspicious start to primary season.


Some vital details to understand about the Iowa caucus in 2020:

An additional data point was publicly announced in 2020 to fulfil a mandate of the Democratic National Committee. The Iowa Democratic Party for the first time in 2020 reported raw vote numbers following the first and second alignment rounds. Previously, the Party had only released delegate counts and the State Delegate Equivalents.

SDEs = the number of people in a candidate’s corner multiplied by the number of delegates assigned to that precinct, divided by the total number of caucus-goers. So the number ends up based on a ratio of success in a particular precinct per total caucus turnout.

This is how Sanders actually won the popular vote [Sanders, 45,842 (26.5%); Buttigieg, 43,274 (25.1%)], and yet Buttigieg may have ended up with more delegates. However, as of this update (Feb. 10), Iowa is not final. AP still has not declared a winner, and both the Sanders and Buttigieg campaigns are requesting a recanvassing.

Update
Here’s where Iowa stands as of Feb. 12: Iowa offers 41 delegates. But the Associated Press has yet to declare a winner in Iowa. The Iowa Democratic Party initially allocated 14 national delegates to Buttigieg, 12 to Sanders, 8 to Warren, and one to Klobuchar. But the AP has listed one delegate as unallocated due to counting irregularities. The unallocated delegate will be awarded to either Buttigieg or Sanders once a winner is declared. I am for now updating my count to match this report. One delegate has been allocated to “Limbo.”

Delegates TTD: Buttigieg, 13; Sanders, 12; Warren, 8; Biden, 6; Klobuchar, 1; Limbo, 1.

Feb. 1, 2016: Pledged delegates TTD: Clinton, 23; Sanders, 21.

January 3, 2008: Obama, 37.6%, 16 delegates; Edwards, 29.7%, 14 delegates; Clinton, 29.4%, 15 delegates.

Next: February 11, New Hampshire primary

New York primary is April 28.

So I’ve Discovered Wikileaks

May 3, 2016 Sanders wins the primary in Indiana. This is seen as a surprise victory in the Indiana primary, as he won by a five-point margin despite trailing in all the state’s polls. Pledged delegate TTD: Clinton 1,706, Sanders 1,408. Clinton leads Sanders by 298 delegates.

May 5: The date of a leaked Democratic National Committee email suggesting that, at least in some regions, Bernie Sanders’ faith might be a vulnerability to exploit.

“It might may [sic] no difference, but for KY and WVA can we get someone to ask his belief. Does he believe in a God. He had skated on saying he has a Jewish heritage. I think I read he is an atheist. This could make several points difference with my peeps. My Southern Baptist peeps would draw a big difference between a Jew and an atheist.”

The email was from Brad Marshall, then CFO of the DNC. Marshall’s Wikipedia article From 1976 to 1980, Marshall held positions at PriceWaterhouseCoopers and Deloitte & Touche in Lexington, followed by some time as a CPA. So he may have figured he knew the territory.

Later that day, Marshall responded to the email thread he had started: “It’s these [sic] Jesus thing.”

There was a reply from DNC CEO Amy K. Dacey, who simply replied, “AMEN.”

That was the end of this thread. This was a single brain fart from the DNC’s money guy that went nowhere. A single person threw this idea against the wall one day, and it did not stick. The DNC did not call Bernie Sanders out on his faith.

But you’d better get ready if he’s the nominee because you can bet your Gideon’s Bible that the Republican Party will.

Kindle and Hillary and CNN Sucks

The best thing I’ve done so far in 2020 is to upgrade my Amazon Kindle.

The one I’ve been carrying around I earned with points at work. See my job decided it was more economical for them to offer points that you could spend in their little online store than it was to say, offer bonuses. I marked a big anniversary or something and wound up with a big pile of points, so I got a Kindle.

This thing was old-school, no backlight, big chunky plastic thing. But I still found it useful to be able to carry around a library in one little toy.

The new Kindles looked a bit nicer. Backlight, so you could read anywhere no matter what the environmental lighting. And, here’s the cool part, this thing can offer full integration with Audible. So I can buy a Kindle book, and for a few bucks more, I can slap an audio-book on it, and I can switch back and forth between reading reading and listening reading. This is great if you’re a person who needs some sort of entertainment going on at all times, like I am. So I can pop in my Airpods (it does work with Airpods, though getting them to pair without restarting the device has been a thing), and read while I warsh my dishes and such. Then, if I decide to sit down for a luxurious read, I push a button, and it shows the page exactly where I left off listening.

Amazon even let me trade in the old one for a discount, so I didn’t have to wonder about how re-purpose or recycle it. Saved me $15.

So the first book I’ve been reading this way has been What Happened by Hillary Clinton, as read by the author. I had tried to read the book in hardcover the first time, but I got bored and put it down. She doesn’t spend the entire book analyzing 2016 as the reader might expect. First you have to trench through a bunch of storytelling. I sure do love Chelsea and she’s great and Marc is such a great father to her grandson Aiden, and Bill sure does enjoy being a grandfather! I mean, it’s okay, but I’m sure one could find this sort of content in one of her other 12 books.

Takeaways from the thing so far when she actually does get down to business: She’s really pissed at Comey. She believes Putin believed he had many reasons to target her. She’s not as mad at Bernie as I am. She explains why Podesta’s e-mail leaks were particularly damaging, and no, it’s not because they revealed some bias at the DNC that wasn’t there. Don’t @ me.

I am enjoying the book, especially since I can put it on and listen while I scrub the terlet. I would almost recommend it as important reading considering the campaign season we find ourselves in now.

I mean, for example, you want an example of how you, the voter, can be brain-fucked by our grand institutions? Just look at today’s brouhaha about Liz Warren said Bernie Sanders said a broad can’t be preznit. As Matt Taiibi documents over at Rolling Stone, CNN wrote that story and posted it the night before the debate, then fed it into the news cycle all day long, then had its moderator-robots ask the candidates about it in the most baited of sleazy ways. Liz and Bernie took the bait and gave what I’m sure CNN thought was some jim-dandy television. They got to extend this cycle, too, by producing hot-mic footage of Warren confronting Sanders after the debate, since her ostensible refusal to shake Bernie’s hand was tearing up Twitter. Look, everybody! Turn on CNN! WOOT.

And that’s just what CNN is up to to fuck with your head. Please know that Vlad Putin has much more nefarious things in mind for you this campaign season.

So when you see a story on the Facebook soon about how Amy Klobuchar ate a salad with a comb and then punched an opossum in the tits? Yeah maybe let’s either not believe it or stop making such stupid shit matter. Because that nonsense is why we have Preznit Sharpie Sippycup now.

Everything.

Thanks to Crooks and Liars for having the text of this amazing exchange between Rep. Eric Swalwell and majority counsel Daniel Goldman during the Judiciary Committee hearing yesterday.

SWALWELL: During Watergate, the famous phrase from Senator Howard Baker was asked: “What did the President know and when did he know it?” There is a reason that no one here has repeated those questions during these hearings. We know what the President did. And we know when he knew it. Mr. Goldman, who sent Rudy Giuliani to Ukraine to smear Joe Biden?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump.

SWALWELL: Who fired the anti-corruption Ambassador in Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump.

SWALWELL: Who told Ambassador Sondland and Ambassador Volker to work with Rudy Giuliani on Ukraine?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump.

SWALWELL: Who told Vice President Pence to not go to President Zelensky’s inauguration?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump.

SWALWELL: Who ordered his own Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney to withhold critical military assistance for Ukraine?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump.

SWALWELL: Who refused to meet with President Zelensky in the Oval Office?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump.

SWALWELL: Who ignored on July 25 his own national security council anti-corruption talking points?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump.

SWALWELL: Who asked President Zelensky for a favor?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump.

SWALWELL: Who personally asked President Zelensky to investigate his political rival Joe Biden?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump.

SWALWELL: Who stood on the White House lawn and confirmed that he wanted Ukraine to investigate Vice President Biden?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump.

SWALWELL: Who stood on that same lawn and said that China should also investigate Vice President Biden?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump.

SWALWELL: As to anything that we do not know in this investigation, who has blocked us from knowing it?

GOLDMAN: President* Trump and the White House.

SWALWELL: So as it relates to President Trump, is he an incidental player or a central player in this scheme.

GOLDMAN: President Trump is the central player in this scheme.

SWALWELL: There is a reason that no one has said “what did the President know and when did he know it?” From the evidence that you have presented, Mr. Goldman, and the Intelligence Committee findings, we know one thing and one thing is clear. As it related to this scheme, the President* of the United States, Donald J. Trump, knew everything.

HR4

Republicans: Democrats need to stop wasting time on this impeachment nonsense and get on with the business of the American people.

House Democrats: ::this morning, debating H.R. 4: Voting Rights Advancement Act of 2019::

Republicans: Not like that!

The Democratic Party

There’s a lot of jibber-jabber today in Washington about “civility.” Moscow Mitch today was bemoaning something he called “partisan paralysis.” House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy said today that impeachment efforts were “divisive.” And, the USA Toady published this today: Divided we fall? Americans see our angry political debate as ‘a big problem’

Republicans have so far pushed the idea that the impeachment proceedings are due to Democratic butthurt that a reporter (from Sinclair Broadcasting, of course) today asked Speaker Nancy Pelosi today if she “hates” the preznit.

She didn’t like that very much.

So I can tell you one thing I think needs to happen in order to pierce a little spit-hole into the divisive nature of American politics. It is a simple thing to be done, and it could be done by an entire political faction all at once, and it would create a wealth of good will in the American political discussions.

Attention, Republicans: Stop calling it the “Democrat Party.”

If you’re not aware, the phenomenon is even laid out at Wikiepedia: “Democrat Party is an epithet for the Democratic Party in the United States, used in a disparaging fashion by the party’s opponents. While historical usage includes non-hostile appearances, the term has grown in its negative use since the 1940s, in particular by members of the Republican Party—in party platforms, partisan speeches, and press releases—as well as by conservative commentators.[1]”

Using “Democrat” where “Democratic” would be preferred is a bullying tactic. It is not grammatical. And this practice alone is divisive on its face. So long as Republicans continue to employ this incorrect usage time after time, it will be difficult to leave divisiveness behind toward a more effective democratic republic.

One can dream.


Speaking of divisiveness, Republicans are outraged that impeachment witness, law scholar Pamela Karlan dared to invoke young Barron Trump’s name as an example/mild joke. Here is what she said, as reported by Vox:

“Contrary to what President Trump says, Article Two [of the Constitution] does not give [Trump] the power to do anything he wants. And I’ll just give you one example that shows you the difference between him and a king, which is the Constitution says there can be no titles of nobility, so while the president can name his son Barron, he cannot make him a baron.”

Karlan later apologized, after Republican shit their pants over this. Rep. Matt Gaetz yelled at Karlan for daring to invoke Barron’s name by…um…invoking Barron’s name.

I want to remind everyone that John McCain once stood up at a dinner and said this, attempting a joke: “Do you know why Chelsea Clinton is so ugly? Because Janet Reno is her father.” Chelsea Clinton was 18 years old at the time.

This was not that.

These Are The Days When You Wish Your Bed Was Already Made

Why, I thought today, as I watched the Judiciary Committee’s impeachment hearing today, would Democrats add a fellow like Jonathan Turley on your panel only to have your counsel race at him with a “that’s a yes or no” question kind of question?

It just seemed like a poorly built pile of Lincoln Logs to me. Why not just make Turley try on the glove while you’re at it? “IF YOU OVERREACH, YOU CAN’T IMPEACH!”

More bizarre was Turley’s position itself. You shouldn’t be impeaching because you can’t point to a specific law broken? Or because you should go to the courts first, for some reason? I’ve seen the video of Turley in 1998, looking quite a bit squeakier than he does today, up in front of the mic goin’ YEAH, IMPEACH THAT MOTHERFUCKER. YEAH, YOU HEARD ME. WHACK HIM WITH A STICK WHILE YOU’RE AT IT, YOU’LL SEE. IN THE BUM.

Ya’ll don’t reckon Jonathan Turley would like to be a judge someday

do you?

Then there was Doug Collins of Georgia, why, here he is in a vintage commercial from like the olden days

I’m sayin’ I believe Collins’ father was a tobacco auction barker and also his mom was a tobacco auction barker too.

He talks fast.

However, he’s worried that these impeachment hearings are going toooooooo fast. It’s about the clock and the calendar, the clock and the calendar, the clock and the calendar, he kept saying. What he was subtly trying to intimate was that Democrats want this thing to hurry up because of this upcoming election deal.

Well he isn’t wrong.

As my favorite New Yorker Randi Rhodes pointed out today on her radio program, yes! Democrats would like to get this thing done well before election 2020.

Because we know that in 2016, the Russkies (is that how you spell that?) were fucking with our elections. And we have evidence sitting in our blubbery laps that Trump and his friend Edmund Jumanji have been trying to get the Ukranians on board with that particular move as well.

And we also know that Trump just telegraphed, in his subtle, clever manner, that he’d be okay if these Untied States of ‘Merka didn’t have a trade agreement with China until after the election. Which, if you run it through a sieve, sounds an awful lot like “we’d like you to do us a favor though.”

Yeah, there’s a reason to get this done soon. And if you like to vote, you should be rooting for it, too.

By the way, here’s a weird effect of one rather bizarre part of today’s proceedings, where Republigoats took bony objections to people trying to finger out what the Founders might thing, something Turley called “necromancy.” As the spiffy John Cole indicates over at Balloon Juice, it rather awkwardly dry-humps the concept of Constitutional originalism.

Yep, today’s hearing was like going for ice cream but the only flavor they have left is garlic.

Good thing it’s Zappadan. I’ve got “Feeding the Monkies at Ma Masion” on the Spotify jukebox, and I’m about to write some nice things about a legendary superstar superhero genius.